The $183 Billion Signal

In March 2025, Anthropic raised $3.5 billion at a $61.5 billion valuation. Six months later, they closed a $13 billion round at $183 billion. The company’s value nearly tripled while most investors watched from the sidelines.

Meanwhile, OpenAI’s valuation climbed from $157 billion to $500 billion in twelve months—roughly $29 billion added every month, almost $1 billion per day. Cursor went from $2.6 billion to $29.3 billion in under a year. The AI boom isn’t coming. It arrived, accelerated, and left the unprepared behind.

Family offices are responding. According to BNY Wealth research, 83% of single-family offices rank artificial intelligence as their top conviction theme for the next five years. Moreover, 78% plan to invest in AI over the next two to three years. This isn’t speculative enthusiasm—it’s strategic reorientation from capital allocators who manage generational wealth.

The question isn’t whether to participate. It’s how to access deals that don’t appear on platforms, negotiate terms that protect capital, and build exposure without becoming the naive money that sophisticated players exploit. Here’s how family offices are actually doing it.

The Access Problem: Why Most Capital Stays Locked Out

The AI unicorn boom has created a paradox. Capital abundance meets deal scarcity. Billions want in, but the best opportunities never reach open markets.

Consider the math. There are now 498 AI unicorns worth a combined $2.7 trillion, according to CB Insights. Yet the top-performing deals—the ones generating the returns everyone cites—flow through closed networks of existing investors, strategic partners, and connected capital.

OpenAI’s recent rounds were led by SoftBank and Microsoft. Anthropic’s largest checks came from Google, Amazon, Lightspeed, and General Catalyst. These aren’t open processes. They’re relationship transactions among parties with existing positions, strategic value, or network access that took years to develop.

Family offices without venture backgrounds face a structural disadvantage. A UBS survey found that while family offices are bullish on AI, only 25% report investing directly in AI startups. The majority—52%—access AI exposure through public equities or ETFs. They’re buying the picks and shovels because they can’t find the gold mine.

Goldman Sachs data confirms this gap. Family offices are more likely to invest in companies leveraging AI for productivity (38%) or secondary beneficiaries like energy providers (32%) than in AI startups directly. The access problem isn’t lack of capital or conviction. It’s lack of infrastructure to deploy that capital into the right opportunities.

The Club Deal Revolution: How 83% of Family Office Deals Now Happen

Family offices have responded to the access problem by pooling resources. According to PwC’s Global Family Office Deals Study, approximately 83% of family office transactions are now structured as club deals or co-investments. This collaborative approach has moved from alternative strategy to dominant model.

The mechanics are straightforward. Multiple family offices identify a shared opportunity, pool capital into a single SPV, and invest as one entity on the cap table. One family office typically serves as lead—handling diligence, negotiation, and ongoing communication—while others participate as limited partners.

This structure solves several problems simultaneously. First, it aggregates capital. A single family office might struggle to write a meaningful check into a $500 million round, but five offices pooling $20 million each create a $100 million position that commands attention and allocation.

Second, club deals distribute diligence burden. AI investments require technical evaluation that many family offices lack internally. When one family office has a CTO with machine learning expertise while another has enterprise software operating experience, the combination produces better underwriting than either alone.

Third, the structure reduces fee drag. Direct participation through SPVs typically costs 5-7% of capital in formation and administrative expenses, plus carried interest on profits. Compare that to fund-of-fund structures charging management fees on top of underlying manager fees, and the efficiency advantage becomes substantial.

The trend is accelerating. PwC data shows club deal participation increased by two percentage points in H1 2024 alone. For families serious about AI exposure, building or joining club deal networks has become essential infrastructure.

The SPV Playbook: Structure That Delivers Access and Control

Family offices increasingly use Special Purpose Vehicles for AI investments because SPVs provide both flexibility and control that fund commitments cannot match.

One Asia-based family office, 76Columbus, reports that approximately 60% of their private equity allocation flows through SPVs rather than traditional fund exposure. One of their SPV investments with Arkview Capital delivered a 2.9x return in just 15 months. The structure enabled faster decision-making, clearer economics, and direct operational visibility.

The SPV approach works particularly well for AI investments because the sector evolves too quickly for traditional fund timelines. A ten-year fund commitment made in 2023 might have deployed capital into AI companies at dramatically different valuations than opportunities available in 2025. SPVs allow family offices to time entries based on conviction rather than fund deployment schedules.

Structuring considerations for AI SPVs include several key elements.

Deal-by-deal control. Each SPV represents a discrete investment decision. Family offices evaluate the specific company, terms, and co-investors rather than delegating judgment to a GP managing a blind pool. If a particular AI vertical looks overheated, they simply pass on those SPVs.

Co-investment rights. Many family offices negotiate co-investment rights alongside fund commitments. When a GP with strong AI deal flow presents an exceptional opportunity, the family office can increase exposure beyond their fund allocation through a co-investment SPV—often with reduced or eliminated management fees.

Secondary access. SPVs increasingly provide entry to positions that closed years ago. The secondary market for private company shares hit $103 billion in H1 2025 alone. Family offices can acquire stakes in proven AI companies through secondary SPVs, buying from early employees or investors seeking liquidity rather than competing in oversubscribed primary rounds.

Information rights. Direct SPV investments often include information rights that fund LP positions don’t provide. For family offices building AI expertise, seeing quarterly financials, board decks, and operating metrics across multiple positions creates pattern recognition that improves future investment decisions.

The NextGen Effect: Who’s Actually Driving These Allocations

Something interesting is happening inside family offices that explains the AI pivot. The next generation is taking over investment decisions, and they bring fundamentally different perspectives.

PwC’s research identifies what they call the “NextGen effect”—younger family members with deep understanding of technology reshaping allocation strategies. Unlike principals who built wealth in real estate, manufacturing, or traditional finance, the next generation often has direct experience with AI tools, crypto platforms, and digital-native business models.

This generational shift produces several observable patterns. First, comfort with concentrated technology bets. Older principals often view AI as speculative technology exposure requiring careful sizing. Younger decision-makers see it as infrastructure transformation comparable to electrification or the internet—warranting strategic rather than tactical allocation.

Second, preference for direct involvement. The next generation typically prefers active investment structures over passive fund commitments. They want to meet founders, understand technical architectures, and contribute value beyond capital. SPVs and direct deals align with this orientation better than traditional LP positions.

Third, network-based deal flow. Younger family office principals often have personal relationships with founders, having attended the same universities, worked at the same technology companies, or participated in the same social communities. These networks produce deal flow that older principals access only through intermediaries.

RBC and Campden Wealth data shows that nearly 50% of family offices expect generational wealth transfer within ten years, while 30% more have succession plans in 2025 than did in 2024. As control passes to the next generation, AI allocation will likely accelerate.

The Valuation Question: When $500 Billion Makes Sense

Sophisticated family offices don’t avoid AI’s elevated valuations. They develop frameworks for evaluating whether premium prices are justified.

The AI sector presents a genuine analytical challenge. OpenAI at $500 billion trades at multiples that look absurd by traditional standards. Yet the company’s products are being embedded into enterprise workflows at unprecedented speed, with revenue reportedly exceeding $4 billion annually and growing at triple-digit rates.

Family offices evaluating AI deals consider several factors beyond standard valuation metrics.

Market structure and competitive moats. The AI infrastructure layer—foundation models, compute providers, and enterprise platforms—shows early winner-take-most dynamics. Companies that establish positions may benefit from data flywheels, talent concentration, and customer lock-in that justify premium valuations. Late entrants face structural disadvantages regardless of technical capability.

Strategic investor involvement. Microsoft’s commitment to OpenAI, Amazon and Google’s investments in Anthropic, and NVIDIA’s positions across the AI stack signal strategic value beyond financial returns. When sophisticated operators pay premium prices, it suggests their analysis—with full information access—supports current valuations.

Revenue quality and growth trajectory. AI companies are demonstrating enterprise adoption rates that exceed prior technology cycles. Cursor reportedly grew revenue from approximately $50 million to $300+ million in eighteen months. Harvey (legal AI) and Abridge (clinical AI) are showing similar trajectories. High multiples on rapidly compounding revenue may actually represent reasonable entry points.

Downside protection through structure. Sophisticated family offices negotiate terms that limit downside even at high valuations. Liquidation preferences, anti-dilution provisions, and information rights create protection that headline valuations don’t capture. The effective valuation after rights adjustments often looks more reasonable than announced figures suggest.

The Risk Framework: What Smart Money Actually Worries About

Family offices approaching AI investments seriously don’t dismiss risks—they systematically evaluate them.

Liquidity risk ranks highest. UBS reports that liquidity concerns represent the number-one fear among family offices allocating to private markets. Startup exit activity dropped 78% from 2021 peaks, according to PwC. The backlog of unicorns waiting for IPO windows could take twelve years to clear at historical exit rates, per Goldman Sachs analysis. Capital deployed into AI startups today might remain illiquid for a decade.

Family offices mitigate this through portfolio construction. Limiting AI exposure to capital genuinely available for ten-plus year horizons prevents forced sales at distressed valuations. Building positions in companies with secondary market liquidity provides earlier exit options if needed.

Concentration risk requires attention. FINTRX data shows family office deal activity fell 32% in H1 2025 overall, but AI investments surged. This concentration creates correlation risk—if the AI cycle corrects, overexposed portfolios suffer disproportionately.

Thoughtful allocation spreads AI exposure across value chain positions: foundation models, infrastructure providers, vertical applications, and enabling technologies. Each segment has different risk profiles and correlation characteristics. Additionally, mixing AI with contrarian positions in overlooked sectors provides portfolio balance.

Due diligence gaps present real dangers. Many family offices lack internal technical expertise to evaluate AI claims. A 2024 UBS survey found that while 78% plan to invest in AI, most lack in-house capability for rigorous technical diligence. This creates vulnerability to compelling narratives that don’t withstand scrutiny.

The solution involves building evaluation capability—either through hiring, advisory relationships, or structured partnerships with technical experts. Family offices treating AI as a strategic priority are adding CTOs, technical advisors, or venture partners with machine learning backgrounds.

The Practical Entry Points: Where to Start

Family offices building AI exposure from scratch face a sequencing question. With limited infrastructure and relationships, where do you begin?

Start with established syndicates and emerging managers. Syndicate leads with AI expertise—former founders, technology operators, or specialized angels—provide curated deal flow and diligence leverage. Participating in SPVs through proven leads builds pattern recognition while maintaining deal-by-deal control. As relationships develop, lead investors often provide access to their stronger opportunities.

Cultivate co-investment relationships with institutional VCs. Fund commitments to AI-focused venture managers often include co-investment rights. A $2-3 million fund commitment might unlock $10-20 million in co-investment capacity over the fund’s life, deployed at lower fees into the GP’s highest-conviction positions.

Join family office networks focused on technology. Organizations like Family Office Club, TIGER 21, and regional family office associations increasingly facilitate AI deal sharing among members. Club deal networks emerge from these communities, providing access to opportunities that individual offices couldn’t access alone.

Consider secondary market entry. For companies like OpenAI and Anthropic where primary rounds are effectively closed to new investors, secondary purchases offer alternative entry. Platforms like Forge, EquityZen, and specialized brokers facilitate these transactions. Pricing reflects current valuation marks, but the approach provides access without requiring direct founder or GP relationships.

Build internal capability deliberately. Family offices making AI a strategic priority hire or contract technical advisors who can evaluate opportunities rigorously. This investment pays dividends across all AI exposure—fund selection, direct deals, and portfolio monitoring.

The Strategic Imperative

The AI transformation is not theoretical. It’s generating the fastest valuation appreciation in venture history. Companies are tripling in value within months. The capital allocators who position effectively will benefit from generational wealth creation. Those who wait for certainty will find themselves buying at the top or missing the opportunity entirely.

Family offices have structural advantages for this moment: patient capital, flexible mandates, and freedom from quarterly redemption pressure. Using those advantages requires infrastructure—networks, structures, and expertise—that doesn’t materialize overnight.

The time to build that infrastructure was three years ago. The second-best time is now.

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The Next Move

Deal flow determines outcomes. Position yourself where capital and opportunity converge: